African Swine Fever is making a resurgence in China and will potentially push prices higher for the most popular protein in the country. Bloomberg says multiple outbreaks have shown up in different parts of the country throughout the winter.
Rabobank expects the most recent wave of ASF to significantly lower production capacity and push prices higher during the second quarter of 2023. The outbreak was most severe in the northern regions of the country, and multiple areas are still struggling with the disease. Rabobank estimates say the latest wave has hit 10 percent of the nation’s sow herd, which controls hog production.
An outbreak in 2018-2019 decimated China’s pig herd, at the time, the largest herd in the world. The spike fueled inflation as pork is a key element in the Chinese consumer price index. Official estimates say 8-15 percent of total production could be lost in the current outbreak.