Do You Wanna Tariff Tango?

(NASHVILLE, TN) – How does that old saying go, “it takes two to tango” right?

Well in this case, it seems like it takes around 90 countries to tango when it comes to the tariff conversation. And it has undoubtedly been a wild ride in the markets since last Thursday with immense volatility in stocks, energies, metals, grains and livestock. 

To put it in a little more perspective, according to my friend Darin Newsom’s latest newsletter, the long-term monthly charts for the three major indexes shows the S&P has lost 17.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 15%, and the Nasdaq has already dropped 23% from its all-time mark of 20,204.58 posted last December. The traditional view is that a 20% selloff in a market creates a bear market.

When it comes to agriculture, a new report from the American Farm Bureau Federation says that “farmers and ranchers, like all Americans, will be paying more for many of the products they purchase, from seed for vegetable growers to tractors and other equipment made of steel.” AFBF also shares that “analysis by the Tax Foundation reports the tariffs applied in 2025 will result in an average tax increase of more than $1,900 for every U.S. household annually, which, if correct, would be the largest tax hike in 43 years, if negotiations are not initiated and resolved quickly.”

Speaking of negotiations, there are reports across the media landscape that anywhere from 40 to 70 countries want to negotiate over President Trump’s tariffs. (That 70 number is according to the President’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.) China, however, is not one of those countries at this point in time. They say they will “fight to the end” over tariffs and that more threats of increased tariffs by President Trump “once again exposes the blackmailing nature of the US”, according to a statement from China’s Commerce Ministry.

Here’s my opinion on all of this, and you’ll have to bear with me for just a moment.

Our national debt currently exceeds $36.6 trillion dollars. We currently spend around $7 trillion, have a budget deficit of over $2 trillion and collect around $5 trillion in tax revenue. Now I am not an economist, nor a market expert, but common sense says those numbers can’t sustain.

I think of it like this. Say you go out and open a brand new credit card; take your pick: AmEx, Southwest Rewards Card, etc. They start you out with a $10,000 credit limit. You immediately think “oooh I’ve got plenty of money, let’s go buy that new lawn mower I’ve always wanted. Then your wife buys a ton of stuff she wants from Amazon. Throw in a few fancy dinners and maybe a beach vacation. Next thing you know, you get a credit card statement that says you have almost reached your credit limit.

“How is that possible? We spent how much money? We need to slow down.”

But then, you decide to ask for a credit limit increase to $20,000. Ta da, approved! You then go back to spending, spending, spending. Paying your minimum balance each month and not having a care in the world. Then, you get another statement that says you’ve hit your credit limit.

Eventually, the bank says no to anymore credit limit increases and you have to start paying down your debt. Trouble is, you don’t have enough money to support paying that debt down on top of the other monthly bills and luxuries you’ve gotten used to. You see where I’m going with this, don’t you?

I’ll be frank, I have absolutely no clue if tariffs are going to work. They could honestly lead to the worst economic disaster the world has ever seen. They could bring immense hardship to Americans far and wide. Tariffs could be a final nail in the coffin of an already struggling farm economy that is not looking any better in the months ahead. And honestly, I haven’t seen much bipartisan cooperation from Capitol Hill to try and slow down this freight train of debt so I’m not too optimistic about much help there at this point. (Example: where’s our new Farm Bill at?)

But, as Albert Einstein said: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

I feel like we have to try something different before it is too late. My hope is that it doesn’t lead us further down a black hole from which we can never recover. Until then, we’ll keep you updated on the latest tariff news and I hope we can all weather the storm of tariffs, and that we can all be good dance partners with each other. I’ve never been much for the tango, but I’ll sure give it a go if it’s my only option.